An overview to the Economist Intelligence Unit's analytical and forecasting methodology.
Get close to the country
The Economist Intelligence Unit strongly believes that superior analysis and forecasts can only be made by experts with a deep understanding of all facets of a country. Only then can its key drivers be interpreted, the correct assumptions made about economic or social policy, and an understanding gained of how the country will react, both economically and politically, to changes in the global environment. Over nearly 60 years we have assembled an extensive global network of contributors in the field and built a pool of country experts in order to ensure that the Economist Intelligence Unit is closer to the countries we cover than any other organisation.
Use the best possible data
No matter how in touch country experts are with national and international developments, it is impossible to produce insights on a country when working with low-quality data. The Economist Intelligence Unit devotes extensive resources to obtaining the best possible data, and this provides the foundation for all our analysis and forecasting.
Expert economists use sophisticated models
Models are an important tool when analysing a country. The Economist Intelligence Unit uses a global econometric model, has economic models for 117 individual countries, and also uses models to assess the risk of sovereign debt default, operating risk and the quality of a country's business environment. Models allow us to ensure consistency and impose rigour on our analysis. In addition, every country's model utilises a single set of global assumptions, a detailed matrix of interest and exchange rates, commodity prices and capital flows, which ensures that all our forecasts are directly comparable and form a coherent part of a global picture. But we do not use models blindly-they are only an approximation of the real world and we never lose sight of the value that informed judgment brings to our analysis.
Form an independent country view
Drawing on the information, analysis and opinions provided by our contributors in the field, as well as a detailed examination of the latest and highest-quality data and the results of our extensive model-based forecasting process, our experienced in-house analysts form a coherent view of the country's current situation and prospects. This view is detailed and yet wide-ranging, covering the economic, political and business situation, the credit risk of the country, industrial trends and operating risks. In addition, unlike many other organisations, our country view is totally independent-we are beholden to no government, no parent company, offer no investment advice and hold no investments ourselves. We base our conclusions on nothing but the facts and our years of analytical and forecasting experience.
Explain the view clearly
Our analysis and forecasts are not ends in themselves- the ultimate goal is to help our clients make better business decisions based on a thorough understanding of the countries they are interested in. Too many organisations try to hide poor analysis behind vague prose. This is of no help when making business decisions. At the Economist Intelligence Unit, we take great pains to express our views plainly, never to make statements without explanation and to ensure that our meaning is clear at all times. Where there are uncertainties relating to our forecasts, we will explain those too.
Rigorous quality control
Our analysis, forecasts and data are rigorously checked before publication. Information provided by our network of contributors, and data obtained from all sources, are checked in house by our country experts before they even begin to generate forecasts, undertake analysis and ultimately form a coherent country view. That view, including the forecasts, the data and every word of the textual analysis, is checked by a senior analyst with the appropriate regional and country expertise. In addition, all text and tables are checked for clarity of expression and consistency, while all numerical forecasts are subject to a series of tests and checks before publication.
Timely publication and frequent updating
The Economist Intelligence Unit believes that all analysis and forecasts should reach its clients as soon as possible after their completion. Our editorial process is specifically designed to allow us to deliver our analysis to clients over the Internet within hours of that analysis being approved by our team. In addition, we also recognise that in a rapidly changing world, we need to revisit our country views regularly. The Economist Intelligence Unit therefore updates its forecasts and analysis every month, forming a new country view and subjecting it to our rigorous checking process. We also track countries on a daily basis, analysing events as they happen and keeping clients informed of their implications through our daily briefing and alerting services.
